Spatial Forecasting Pattern Analysis

Spatial forecasting pattern analysis is a new type of analysis based on modern system technologies that allow for the integration of many different types of data. It typically falls under computer system or information system categories since it does not have a strong financial component and is typically tied to some sort of physical aspect, such as the position of certain objects. This tool is spreading throughout many different industries and has opened up forecasting possibilities.

Definition

Spatial forecasting pattern analysis begins with basic pattern analysis but then adds a twist. In spatial pattern analysis, analysts examine data based on location information to see if there is any pattern in physical data, especially data concerning movement or geography. This would take far too long under older systems, but with newer systems analysts can use complex programs to perform calculations very quickly and call up results for examination.

GIS

At the core of spatial forecasting pattern analysis is geographic information system (GIS) computing. GIS is a type of information system that focuses only on physical data at a particular location, which could be related to the movement of people, the expansion of forests, the types of soil or the growth of certain offices or residential areas, but all information gathered is based on its physical relevance. The data is then displayed on an actual map to create the spatial pattern analysis grid.

Forecasting

Once programs have found patterns within the physical data created by the GIS, the next step is to try to forecast future patterns. Analysts also have forecasting programs that take the patterns that have been noted and extrapolate them into the future, generating potential expansion of patterns and showing where new patterns may emerge, which allows analysts to create forecasting maps of where events have a high probability of occurring in the future.

Common Uses

Spatial forecasting pattern analysis finds frequent use in tracking scenarios where analyzing human movement is key. Crime centers use it to try to predict where crimes will occur in the future. The military uses such systems to predict the movements of various targets. And companies use systems to try to predict where mines or oil are or how communities will expand in coming years.

References

• ESRI: What is a Z Score What is a P-Value
• B Net: Templating an adaptive threat: spatial forecasting in operations Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom
• Jacobs Technology: Swarming Pattern Analysis to Identify IED Threat
• GIS Park: Spatial Statistics and Its Application in the Analysis of Spatial Pattern