Four Types of Forecasting

Save

People rely on weather forecasts to help them decide what to wear, what to do and how to plan their day. Accurate weather forecasting is also critical to keeping people and property safe from threats such as hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and major storms. Knowing the different types of forecasting techniques can help you better understand how meteorologists predict the weather, and may even allow you to make predictions of your own.

Persistence

  • Persistence forecasting is based on the concept that current weather conditions can reveal clues to tomorrow's forecast. Meteorologists who rely on this forecasting method predict that current conditions will persist, or continue unchanged. They make observations using thermometers and barometers to assess the weather, then theorize that the next few days will feature similar weather patterns. This forecasting technique works best in areas with predictable weather patterns, such as a tropical zone or an arctic region.

Synoptic

  • Synoptic, or analogue forecasting is a method of predicting the weather based on accepted theories and principles of meteorology. This technique requires some skill and training, and incorporates weather maps, radar and satellite images. Forecasters combine these tools with information about atmospheric pressure, air flow and temperatures to come up with a forecast. Synoptic forecasting served as the primary method of predicting the weather through the 1950s and '60s. It's still used today for short term predictions.

Statistical

  • Statistical or climatological forecasting allows meteorologists to make predictions based on historical trends. It assumes consistent weather patterns over time. Forecasters examine historical information about average, high and low temperatures to estimate future temperature ranges. They also examine historical storm records and precipitation amounts and use those as a basis for forecasting. For example, a statistical forecaster may state that the next month will bring rain and cold temperatures because that is considered the normal condition for this area at this time of year.

Computer Modeling

  • Computer modeling forecasts represent the most advanced method of predicting the weather. This method relies on mathematical formulas that are designed to model atmospheric and weather conditions. By inputting current weather data, the meteorologist can calculate future conditions. Top weather-related agencies, such as the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, rely on this form of forecasting to maximize accuracy.

References

  • Photo Credit Jupiterimages/Photos.com/Getty Images
Promoted By Zergnet

Comments

You May Also Like

  • Four Types of Communication

    Communication affects every aspect of life---from how we are socialized to the brand of shampoo we use. In his text "Human Communication:...

  • Different Types of Weather Instruments

    Weather watching is a fun hobby and can lead to an understanding of the triggers of and precursors to severe weather. From...

  • What Strengths Do You Need to Become an Accountant?

    Accountants are financial professionals responsible for keeping accurate financial records for individuals, companies and other organizations. In addition to preparing these records,...

  • Types of Demand Forecasting

    Demand forecasting is an activity that aims to estimate the amount of goods and services that the consumers will purchase. It uses...

  • Types of Forecasting Methods

    Forecasts serve as decision support tools that allow leaders to plan for the future by performing “what-if” analyses to determine how changes...

Related Searches

Check It Out

How to Build and Grow a Salad Garden On Your Balcony

M
Is DIY in your DNA? Become part of our maker community.
Submit Your Work!