How to Make a Science Fair Project on the Accuracy of Weather Channels
A fallible science, weather forecasting only determines a likely weather condition from broad statistical models. For example, the Weather Channel reported Tucson, Arizona weather with 73 percent accuracy in 2009, while the National Weather Service matched 72 percent of the time, according to Forecast Advisor. A science fair evaluation of the accuracy of weather channel forecasting ought to explore the sources of inaccuracies and how technologies, such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's new supercomputers, might improve future weather models.
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Things You'll Need
- Wood glue
- 2 squares of particle board, 2 feet by 2 feet
- Hammer
- Standard nails
- Craft glue
- Exterior mercury thermometer
- Barometer
- Rain gauge
- Heavy weight
Instructions
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Preparation
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1
Line the exterior edge of one of your pieces of particle board with wood glue; press the glued edge against the other piece of board so that the boards create an "L" shape. Nail your two boards together.
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2
Spread craft glue on your exterior mercury thermometer's back and press against your L-shaped boards until it sticks. The thermometer should sit on the inside angle of the L-shaped boards, facing away from the interior angle, as close to the top of the board as possible. Attach your barometer and rain gauge in the same way, keeping the measuring equipment 8 to 10 inches apart.
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3
Find an outdoor area where you can keep your equipment. Look for spaces close to your daily activities, such as in your yard or a nearby community garden.
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4
Place your measurement setup in a shady area, resting the part of the L-shaped boards that does not contain measuring equipment flat against the ground. The setup should remain undisturbed for at least two weeks. Place a heavy rock or weight on the grounded part of the setup to hold it in place. Read thermometers in the shade to prevent any miscalculations caused by the heat of the sun, according to the Department of Energy.
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5
Create a grid chart for each day of measuring. Create row sets for temperature, rainfall and air pressure measurements. For each row set, create one row each for your readings and for the readings of each weather station. Create a vertical column for each hour you measure.
Experiment
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6
Copy the predictions for each hour you measure in your grid. You can limit your project to any number of hour forecasts, such as 10-, 12- or 24-hour forecasts, as long as you acquire each station's report at the same time every day and stay consistent throughout the whole project. The farther in advance you get the report, the more unlikely the weather prediction.
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7
Write, on your prepared grid, the measurements from each tool at each hour of measurement. For example, you perform a project measuring the accuracy of 12-hour predictions. You decide to print out and record the forecasts at 8 pm and 8 am. Record your equipment's readings at 8 am and compare to the previous day's 8 pm 12-hour forecast; compare your 8 pm readings to that morning's 12-hour forecast.
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8
Compare your measurements to the measurements of the forecasting services at the end of the project. Create any required reports by your instructor that compare the stations' accuracy to your personal measurements.
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Tips & Warnings
In windy areas, use ground spikes to keep your equipment setup stabilized.
When creating your report, remember to remove any anomalies and try to explain any consistent differences between measurements. For example, if your thermometer always reads 2 degrees cooler than the predicted weather, check for calibration problems.
Do not attempt any construction without adult supervision.
References
- Photo Credit thermometer image by timur1970 from Fotolia.com
