How to Understand Point Spreads
Point spreads are everywhere: in the sports section, on sports radio, during pregame shows. People make casual references to one team being favored by 7 points over another. But rarely do you see an explanation of what point spreads mean and how to understand them.
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Instructions
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1
Find a point spread listing. There's usually one on the agate page of a newspaper sports section. That's the page with all sorts of scores and results in small type. Look for a heading such as Today's Lines or Daily Odds. Or you could go to any number of websites. See the Resource section in this article for a link to a compilation of odds from Las Vegas sports books.
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2
Identify the favorite in a particular game. Often the favorite will be clearly identified, with the number of points it's favored by. Other times, you might have to figure it out for yourself. Say you're looking at the line for a football game between Chicago and New York. The favorite will be the team with a minus number next to it--for example, "Chicago (-7)." If a team has a plus number next to it--like "New York (+7)"--then that team is the underdog.
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3
Translate the numbers. Oddsmakers can't take straight-up bets on one team to beat another, because they'd lose their shirts on games in which good teams played awful teams. So they create point spreads.
In the example in Step 2, Chicago was favored by 7 points, meaning that a person who bet on Chicago would win only if Chicago beat New York by more than 7 points. The minus in the notation means that you take Chicago's final point total and subtract 7 points from it. If it's still greater than New York's total, then a Chicago bet is a winner. The plus number next to New York means that you take New York's score and add 7 to it. If the result is greater than Chicago's point total, then a New York bet is a winner.
What happens if Chicago beats New York by exactly 7 points? Adjusted for the spread, their point totals would be equal. That's called a push, and all bets are refunded. This is why it's common to see spreads that involve half a point--for example, Chicago favored by 7 1/2 points. When half-points are involved, there can be no push.
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4
Know the shorthand. When a team is a favorite, it's said to be giving points to the underdog. If a team beats the point spread, that's called covering. A favorite can cover only by winning by more than the spread. An underdog can cover by winning--or by losing by less than the spread.
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5
Understand what the point spread is really for. The biggest misconception about point spreads is that they are intended to predict the outcomes of games. That's wrong. Point spreads are used to try to get equal numbers of people betting for the favorites and for the underdogs. Bookmakers make their money by charging all bettors a vigorish, a fee for their services. The money from losers is used to pay winners; if the point spread is set correctly, there should be a roughly equal amount of money going in and coming out.
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