How to Guage Which College Quarterbacks Will Do Well in the NFL
NFL teams, fans and media pundits spend countless hours every year trying to figure out which college players will have success as pros. The biggest questions always seem to revolve around quarterbacks drafted in the first and second rounds--the guys who will get automatic millions to turn around a struggling franchise or be groomed as a star for the future. Conventional wisdom says this is a roll of the dice because so many high-level college quarterbacks never come close to prospering in the NFL. However, it's only a roll of the dice if NFL teams and their fans aren't paying attention.
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Instructions
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See how many games the quarterback started in college. Many teams fall in love with one-year collegiate wonders. Most of the top NFL quarterbacks taken high in the 1990s and 2000s--Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer--started more than 35 games in college. Some of the biggest flops--Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Jim Druckenmiller--started roughly 20 games or less.
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Look at the player's college completion percentage. If it is higher than 60 percent, that is a good sign that the player is an accurate passer. If it is in the mid-50s range, let that be a warning sign. Quarterbacks tend not to get more accurate in the pros.
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Look at the completion percentage of the quarterbacks who preceded him on his college team. For example, if a college team consistently has a quarterback who completes 68 percent of his passes--whether he's a 6-foot-5 hyped prospect or a 5-foot-9 quarterback who never got a sniff from the NFL--that is a warning sign that it is the college team's system that is the real star.
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Keep your eye on the quarterback's passing--not on his running. Too often, pundits tag a quarterback who can run a 4.3 in the 40-yard dash as creating an added dimension with his talent. Not quite true. Yes, scrambling quarterbacks do create opportunity with their legs, but too often NFL scramblers get injured or quite simply can't throw the ball well enough. The best bet is to take a scrambler in the later rounds and groom his passing skills. Don't pay the extra millions for that guy in the first round.
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Look at arm speed and not arm strength. Too often, fans get excited by a guy who can throw really far, but in reality, they need to get excited about a guy who can unload the ball quickly. Rarely does a quarterback get 6 seconds to wind up and throw 70 yards in a game. It's more like 3 seconds.
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Tips & Warnings
A player going to a team with a strong running game and offensive line will almost always do better than a player who goes to a team with good receivers.
Resources
- Photo Credit NFL.com
