How to Interpret Exiting Polls

The purpose of an exit poll is to extract information from voters as they exit the polls with the intent of predicting who the next elect official will be. The problem with exit polls is that most people do not know what they really are, in which case, they often ascribe more credibility to exit polls than is deserved. While exit polls can be a valuable political tool, understanding a few basic concepts is necessary if one wishes to interpret the polls accurately.

Difficulty: Moderate

Instructions

1. Learn what an exit poll really is. While exit polls can be one of the most reliable and innovative political tools available, in reality, they are just sample surveys with the usual limitations included---not to mention the addition of a few restrictions of their own. Understanding the benefits of a sample polls and their limitations (including the additional restrictions specific to exit polling) will help you to better interpret these polls.

2. Familiarize yourself with how an exit poll is conducted. This will help in identifying and understanding some of the limitations and restrictions that are characteristic in exit polling. Learning the demographics of voters participating in the exit polling is one factor that can identify a particular bias. Asking yourself if the population at large is equally represented and what particular biases the predominantly polled population postulates is one way to spot a bias in information collection.

3. Become aware of the factors that taint exit poll data. For example, younger people are more apt to participate in an exit poll than senior citizens, this tends to skew the data in favor of certain candidates. Exit polls often miss late voters and "leaked" information or "first-wave" exit polls only contain a very small population sample.