How to Account for a Margin of Error in Polls
When you're collecting data about an election or responses to a presidential debate, a poll can be an effective tool in measuring voter response to key issues. From election-day polls to post-debate polls, political groups and news organizations have several methods of gathering information about candidates. Read more to learn how margin of error is accounted for and measured in the polling process.
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Instructions
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Report the margin of error. The standard margin of error for any poll is plus or minus 3 percentage points. That percentage accounts for the margin of error inherent in the sampling process. In selecting an accurate sample pool to poll, multiple factors prevent a 100 percent confidence level. For example, the process of selecting a balanced and accurate representation of the larger constituency, as well as preserving the accuracy of the information collected at the time of the poll, accounts for the error that incrementally changes the result of a poll. That error is inherently absorbed into the polling process, and is generally measured at 3 percent.
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Factor in sampling error. Because 100 percent of a population cannot be polled, a poll must take in to account the sampling error that occurs during random selection. The organization or person that commissions the poll must acknowledge that the pool does not effectively represent the entire face of the larger, overarching community. He must statistically measure how the poll would differ if the environment were subject to a different scenario. In other words, he must acknowledge that the poll could change due to chance and random factors beyond his control.
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Consider the number of participants. A poll can effect a smaller margin of error with a larger sample. According to The Gallup Poll Monthly, a sample pool that consists of 500 to 1,000 participants has a 3 to 2 percent margin of error. That percentage margin is significantly lower than in polls with a small pool of respondents. To lower the margin of error, conduct the poll with at least a minimum of 500 participants.
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