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Step 1
First, crazy things happen in baseball. Old timers suddenly break out, talented phenoms don't pan out, and season ending injuries kill teams. But I'm going to teach you the rules on how to draft smartly, and the rest is up to luck and how you manage your team.
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Step 2
1st, 2nd, 3rd rounds
Draft an elite shortstop, second basemen, or third basemen. Get all three if you can in the first few rounds. These positions are notoriously thin outside of a few elite players, especially at second base, where there is basically a precipitous drop after Chase Utley. Don't get me wrong, Uggla and Kinsler are great too, but FB is all about opportunity cost. It's tougher to get a quality SS 2B 3B than a good OF. That's why you always draft these thin position first. -
Step 3
NEVER draft closers. They always go for higher than they should, and closers are very shaky to begin with. Through the course of a season, closers change and have big ups and downs. Also, in head to head leagues that determine your record based on weekly matchups, closers can be unpredictable by getting nothing one week and 3 saves the next week. Most importantly, many closers go undrafted and end up being valuable down the stretch. I'm not saying closers aren't worth having. But you can easily pick one up in free agency or wait for a closer change and pick up the new closer. Since you're in H2H, its points that matter, no your saves rank as in a roto league.
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Step 4
Look at last season's stats. What you are looking for is young batters who had their first full year in the majors, had strong minor league numbers, and have talent. I say you should look for these guys because they are great middle or late round pickups. Often early round picks don't work out and young players getting real shots at stardom blossom every year. Case in point, Josh Hamilton in 2008.
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Step 5
Don't draft players who are in their 30's, had career seasons last year, and did it in a contract year. They almost always underperform the next year (Raul Ibanez, Mike Lowell, Brian Roberts, Torii Hunter).
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Step 6
Draft for potential, youth, talent, upside, and 5 tools. Don't draft for name recognition, long track records, and dependability. Troy Tulowitzki is a better pick than Jeter because Tulo can give you a great season whereas with Jeter all you can hope for is that he stays healthy and repeats what he did last year.
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Step 7
Leave your last OF spot to a late round pick. Draft a young risky 3rd outfielder, and if he doesn't work out, pick up a free agent. Your picks before that should be yound potential breakout pitchers.
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Step 8
Stock up on starting pitchers. If you have reserves room, get loads of starting pitchers because you can rotate them in when they two starts (assuming you can't change your roster during a scoring period) and get more out of your pitchers slots.
