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Step 1
Avoid sixteen. As you survey your bracket and pick your first-round winners, remember that no sixteenth-seeded team has ever beaten a first-seeded team in the opening round since the current tournament format was adopted more than twenty years ago. Try to pick several upsets in the first round, but don't pick any of the number sixteen seeds to advance.
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Step 2
Remember the 5-12 oddity. For reasons that no one understands, a surprisingly high number of five seeds are upset by twelve seeds in the first round. Choose at least one number twelve seed to advance.
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Step 3
Play a long shot. Most of the surprising upsets happen in the first two rounds of the tournament. Once you get to the third round (the "Sweet Sixteen") and beyond, you should have many of the top-seeded teams advancing. A "Cinderella" team or two regularly makes it to the Elite Eight or sometimes even the Final Four, so don't be afraid to ride a long shot team deep into the bracket. Read articles to find out which Cinderellas the college hoops experts like, but in the end you should just go with your gut.
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Step 4
When you get to the Final Four (the four winners of the regional brackets) make sure you do not have all four top-seeded teams still alive. All four number one teams never make it out of their regionals; it's rare for even three to make it. A good Final Four prediction looks something like this: one or two of the top-seeded teams, another high seed and a Cinderella team. For example, you might have a number one seed, a number two, a number four and a number nine seed.
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Step 5
Go with a known quantity for the Final Four. Cinderella teams sometimes make it to the round of eight or even the Final Four, but they hardly ever win it all. Your pick for national champion doesn't have to be everyone's favorite team going into the tournament, but it's usually best to go with a high-profile team, a number one, two or three seed.
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Step 6
As you're picking winners in each round, remember the following characteristics successful NCAA tournament teams often need: strong veteran leadership, outstanding guard play, at least one go-to scorer, the ability to play shutdown defense and an experienced coach. If a team has most or all of these traits but is a lower seed, they might be a good choice as one of your "Cinderella" teams.
Comments
gbrent said
on 3/17/2009 Also see you mentioned a number 9 as a possible selection. While not impossible, that wouldn't be very wise since no team seeded lower than 8 has ever won the tournament. Very hard for a number 9 or 8 to even make the Sweet 16 since the winner of their first round game has to play a #1 seed in the second round.
gbrent said
on 3/17/2009 Good tips. It is worth noting that your contention regarding too many #1's isn't completely accurate. While it isn't common, it has happened. Last year all four 1's did make it. There was one year recently that none did as I recall. Those are extremes however. 2 is usually the right number to go with.