How to Guess the Film Award Winners

The film award shows take over the entire first quarter of the year’s television schedule, and there’s nothing you can do about it. So maybe you can just make the best of it, and earn some money by betting on who is going to win. And with these hints, your money will be a little bit safer.

Instructions

Difficulty: Easy

1. 1) IF IT’S FOREIGN, IT WILL LOSE.
   As much as I’d like to believe that American awards shows would give the award to the most deserving film, the truth is, they will give it to the most deserving film in the English language. Many years have seen multiple foreign language award nominees, and all have generally lost to English-language films (the best example being Unforgiven, which won over films that were all from overseas). So the best bet is, if it’s in another language, it doesn’t stand a chance.
2. 2) IN DIRECTION, WOMEN HAVE NO CHANCE.
   The sad fact of it is that in the history of the major awards, only three women directors have even been nominated for best director: Sophia Coppola, Lina Wertmuller, and Jane Campion. So the greatest honor a female director has seemed to receive is just being nominated. Don’t bet on them.
3. 3) WITH MUSIC, VOTERS WANT TO BE HIP.
   Generally, music is the area where the newest or most surprising thing is what is going to win. If there is a year where a country and western song is up against a rap song, the rap song wins. If a band that is popular worldwide is up against an angry, rebellious artist who divides the population, they’ll go with him. Whatever seems hip and surprising, regardless of whether it’s deserved.
4. 4) THE TRUE BEST PICTURE PROBABLY GETS A WRITING AWARD.
   The best picture is never awarded to the film that is genuinely the best film. Usually that film is more daring and surprising, and feels risky to the voters. So they give a more mainstream film the best picture award, and give the screenplay award to the truly deserving film.
5. 5) THERE IS A NARROW AGE WINDOW FOR ACTING AWARDS.
   Though people of all ages are nominated for acting awards, the general rule is that someone between the ages of 25 and 50 will win. If you’re younger than that, the nomination is a recognition of a great first performance, but they figure you’ll have plenty of time to win one later. If you’re older than that, the nomination is simply an honoring of a long and wonderful lifetime of work, and the recognition ends there.