How to Predict a Trend

In its noun form, trend is defined as the general course or prevailing tendency of events or style. If there were a single spark that drives a trend, they would be easy to predict. Seemingly spontaneous in birth, a trend is the result of many variables. Being able to forecast a trend has many advantages, including potential financial profitability. Spotting a trend differs from predicting one in that when spotted, on television for example, the trend is already in motion and part of the social fabric.

Instructions

Difficulty: Challenging

1. Pay attention to the number crunchers. Economic news is always making headlines. Have home prices continued to rise at unprecedented levels? Following the logic of a lackluster stock market doesn’t indicate luxury goods as the hottest trend for the general population. Maybe soup kitchens are the next hottest thing.
2. Follow politics. Conservatives sweeping the elections should indicate something about the following four years, as would liberals winning the majority of offices. Is attendance at church going to go up? Maybe there will be more money available for social services programs.
3. Listen to the poor. Many trends trace their roots to the poor and/or America’s urban core. Conventional wisdom is that artists (the poor ones) adopt the trends and mass market them to the general public. Hip hop and inner-city gentrification are two examples of this pattern.
4. Speak the language of immigrants. Who knew that sushi would become a diet staple of beef-loving American cowboy descendants? The migration of immigrant groups, like the wave of the Irish and their differing geographic settlements at the end of the 19th Century, foreshadows trends and cultural changes. Coloring a major city waterway green on March 17 is as uniquely American as a Cinco de Mayo celebration.
5. Know your demographics. An aging baby-boomer population portends a great many trends, drive-through Botox centers aren’t that far fetched of an idea. Why is the population in the Sunbelt states increasing? What is Generation X up to? Is it time for them to be thinking about retirement funds? How many children per couple are they having? Are a number of your neighborhood schools closing? What kind of toys are the offspring of the first generation not to know life without a computer going to be playing with?

Tips & Warnings

• Trend forecasting is not an exact science. It depends a lot on intuition. Be careful with betting the farm on your forecasts.