How to Run a Political Poll

Simply put, polls are a gauge of how people may vote, but they are not always that simple. The polls need to reflect the polling base. A famous example of this is the 1948 presidential race. Polls showed that the Democrat Harry Truman was going to lose to Thomas Dewey, a Republican governor from New York, but Truman won. So the polls didn't reflect the real voters.

Instructions

Difficulty: Moderately Challenging

Things You’ll Need:

• Volunteers or a paid phone bank
• A questionnaire
• A computer that can do spreadsheets

1. Decide how to phrase your question(s). Remember to randomize the names of candidates so as not to skew the answers toward the same person if they are named first each time.
2. Pick a sample size. Five hundred people is a good number to start with because that leaves roughly a 5-percent margin of error. However, most statistical trends start to form at 125.
3. Start calling. Most polls are done by calling a home's landline. But that is a problem because many younger voters use cell phones now.
4. Tabulate the data.
5. Release the data. Make sure to explain how the data was collected in the release.

Tips & Warnings

• Do your poll quickly. As a race gets closer to the voting day, poll numbers will shift. There is little use in releasing data two weeks after it was collected.
• Know the demographics of who you are calling.
• Make sure you can trust your pollster whether they be from a call center or volunteers.
• Make sure to ask respondees if they work on a campaign or are a member of the media. That can skew numbers.
• Be wary of Internet polls because the ballots can be stuffed rather easily.