Things You'll Need:
- Fantasy Baseball League
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Step 1
Sign up for a league with a live draft. Auto drafts are unpredictable and difficult to manipulate. By participating in a live draft you will have ultimate control of who ends up on your team.
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Step 2
Know the players. You should have a strong understanding of most of the pitchers in the league. Know who has changed teams during the off season, who has retired and potential rookies getting their first taste in the league.
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Step 3
Know their roles. The easiest way to predict an increase in a particular player's fantasy value is to understand changes in opportunity. In most fantasy baseball leagues closers and starting pitchers produce most of the statistics. Maybe a departing free agent has opened a spot in the starting rotation for a promising reliever. Perhaps a team's closer retired and they will be auditioning a number of players for that role in spring training. Perhaps a highly regarded prospect was traded to a worse team where he will get an opportunity to start or close that was not available with his former team.
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Step 4
Pay attention to statistical trends. Since E.R.A and Wins are categories that are defined somewhat by the team a pitcher plays for--more important statistics to analyze are strikeouts, walks, ground balls and home runs. Look for players whose strikeout to walk ratio is trending positively and for pitchers who can keep the ball in the yard.
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Step 5
Know the three-year rule. Generally starting pitchers see their biggest upturn in performance after about 350 to 400 innings. This is generally after their second full season in the bigs. These players have adapted to the length of the professional baseball season, have mastered strength and conditioning exercises, have grown into their bodies and mastered their emotions. When in doubt look for players entering their third season.
