How to consider Big Brown

Big Brown, the three-year-old colt who won the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby on May 3, is being considered as racing's next super horse. Though only tested four times, the Richard Dutrow Jr. trained horse will strive for the elusive Triple Crown, with his next obstacle coming on May 17 at the Preakness Stakes. Should he succeed at the Baltimore-based Pimlico Race Course, he will then try his luck at the Belmont Stakes in early June in an effort to become the first thoroughbred to capture the triple crown in 30 years.

Instructions

Difficulty: Easy

1. To first determine if Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown can be considered horse racings next super horse, let's look at his brief career to date. It all begin on September 3, 2007 with an impressive 11 1/4-length victory at Saratoga Race Course in a $63,000 maiden special weight race. But foot problems delayed his next start until March 5, another impressive win 12 3/4-lengths) in a $41,500 allowance race at Gulfstream Park. This led to a big leap in competition in the March 29 Florida Derby, a major prep race for the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown cruised to a 5-length victory in the $1-million race, earning him a birth in the Derby and status as odds-on favorite, despite only three career starts.
2. Though lightly raced, Big Brown carried the pressure of being pre-race Kentucky Derby favorite into Churchill Downs in Louisville. And the challenge didn't get any easier when he drew the outside post in the 20-horse field, meaning he would have to run farther than any of his competitors. Well, he quickly put any doubts to rest by breaking from the gate fast and reaching fourth place before the first turn. After five furlongs, Big Brown made a move and advanced to the rail, never to be seriously challenged again and finishing 4 3/4-length in front to capture the bed of roses.
3. With all doubts on the track erased, one must consider Big Brown's pedigree to determine if he is super-horse worthy. Owned by IEAH Stables Michael A. Iavarone and Paul P. Pompa (Pompa's trucking business has UPS as a client, which is where the name Big Brown came from) and bred by Monticule in Kentucky, Big Brown is a Boundary colt. Boundary never won anything other than shorter, sprint races, which at first glance spells doom for Big Brown. However, bad knees prevented Boundary from ever trying to run longer distances, and Big Brown's dam, Mien, did win at 1 1/16 miles. Plus, Northern Dancer is in both sides of Big Brown's family tree, and the 1964 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner's record as a stallion speaks for itself.
4. So, when considering Big Brown as a super horse with triple crown potential, the Preakness Stakes doesn't seem quite an obstacle. The race is 1/16 miles shorter than the May 3 Derby, so distance shouldn't be a factor. He will most likely face a smaller, fresher field of competitors, but Big Brown's breath-taking performance at Churchill suggests the weaker Preakness field will be no problem. Ultimately, what it comes down to is the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, a true test of endurance in which Big Brown could face a well-rested challenger with distance in its pedigree, much like Smarty Jones did in 2004 when he battled Birdstone. Smarty couldn't hold off Birdstone at the wire. We'll see if Big Brown encounters a similar scenario, or perhaps he will have blown the field away by the time distance factors into the race, much like Secretariat did in 1973.