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Step 1
Pick the quarterback, as this is your best chance of picking the correct Super Bowl MVP. In 41 Super Bowls the quarterback position has won the award 20 times. The glory position in football has won the Super Bowl MVP just under half of the time.
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Step 2
Choose the player from the team that is likely to win the game. When making the pick of the Super Bowl MVP you have to look at what team is the odds on favorite to win the game. Only one time in the History of the Super Bowl has the MVP come from the losing team. Chuck Howly of the Dallas Cowboys, Super Bowl V.
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Step 3
Improve your chances by choosing an offensive player. Out of the 41 Super Bowls an offensive player has won the award 33 times. Besides the quarterback, on offense, a running back has won the award seven times, wide receiver five times, and a punt/kick returner one time. By picking an offensive player, if history is any indication, you have roughly an 80% chance of being correct.
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Step 4
Look at the past Super Bowl MVPs. Pick the MVP that has, throughout history, won the award the most times. By breaking down rough percentages for the top three offensive players in past Super Bowls the quarterback has won the award 50% of the time, running back 17% and wide receiver 12%.
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Step 5
Bypass defensive players which will lessen your chance of picking the right Super Bowl MVP. Only eight defensive players in the game's history have won the Super Bowl MVP. And in those eight games defensive ends and safeties are tied with two MVPs each, which breaks down to roughly 5% of the time.
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Step 6
Increase your chances by choosing the quarterback from the team than should win the game. By doing this you will have around a 50/50 chance of being correct. This is not a lock but the chances will be greatly in your favor, considering Super Bowl MVP history.
