How to Pick an NFL Upset

People love to wager on NFL games whether it is playing the point spread at a casino or just a simple office pool. No real money can be made, however, if one cannot spot match-ups that favor a potential upset. Simply guessing on games and hoping for an upset isn’t going to get the job done. Follow these tips in order to pick an NFL upset.

Instructions

Difficulty: Challenging

1. Learn all you can about the NFL. Having a basic knowledge about football is all well and good but won’t cut the mustard when trying to pick an NFL upset. Learn about the teams and the coaches. Know about the differences in play calling and offensive and defensive schemes of each team. Doing this will help you spot a match-up that is favorable for an upset.
2. Know the schedule and watch for trap games. Say, for example, than an undefeated team is playing a winless team in week four of the NFL regular season. Examine the undefeated teams schedule. Does the winless team have a rivalry game or an exceptionally difficult opponent a week after playing the winless team? If so the undefeated team may be looking ahead. This is an example of a “trap game” and is great for an upset pick.
3. Pay attention to what the experts are saying. Watch ESPN and The NFL Network and log onto different websites to read previews of the upcoming NFL games. Often, NFL upsets will be predicted by these experts. Remember that there is a reason why they are paid large amounts of money to analyze the NFL. If a large percentage of experts are predicting an upset it’s probably a good idea for you to do the same.
4. Know the two teams that are playing against each other and the history they have playing against each other. Suppose that Cleveland is 3-1 and Miami is 1-3. Now let’s say that Cleveland is missing some players due to injury and all the signs are there for an upset. However, what if Miami hasn’t won in Cleveland in the team’s last five attempts and this particular game is being played in Cleveland? Much like in life, history repeats itself in the NFL.
5. Follow the point spread throughout the week. Following the spread allows you to see which teams other people are putting their money on. If a team is seven point underdogs on Monday and six point underdogs by Friday that means that a lot of people put their money on the upset during the week.
6. Do not make any NFL picks before Friday (if possible). A lot can happen in the NFL between the end of the Monday Night Football and Sunday afternoon. A player that was available the previous week may be out the next. Sometimes coaches will wait until the last possible minute to announce just who exactly is starting for his team on Sunday. A game that looked great for an upset pick on Tuesday morning may have a completely different outlook come Friday evening.
7. Don’t get discouraged easily. There’s a reason that it’s called an “upset pick.” If you pick an NFL upset and it doesn’t go your way than try again the next week. An upset of a large magnitude is not going to happen every week in the NFL. Keep at it and you’ll find your record will improve week by week.