How to Forecast a Hurricane

Forecasting the path of hurricanes saves lives and property each year by allowing target areas to evacuate and take precautions to secure property. The forecasting methods are not always accurate because weather is unpredictable. Sometimes the hurricane path changes, or the storm unexpectedly weakens or strengthens. The best hurricane forecasts combine computer models, satellite pictures of the storm and years of experience.

Instructions

1. Use the latest computer models used to forecast hurricanes. The current models use complex equations that take many aspects of the storm and the surrounding areas into consideration. There are several different forecasting models available. Choosing to use more than one may give you a better forecast.

2. Monitor the progress of the hurricane. Plug in the newest numbers, and recalculate the hurricane's path. Make sure to account for readings from different atmospheric layers.

3. Use satellite pictures of the water vapor, and any other methods at your disposal to change the forecast model during the life of the storm. There will likely be radar data as well as wind flow data from aircraft known as hurricane hunters.

4. Concentrate your forecast on the immediate future of the storm rather than a long range prediction. All weather prediction, and especially hurricanes, cannot be predicted long term with any accuracy.

5. Attempt forecasts of both the path of the storm and the projected intensity. After witnessing a few hurricanes and studying their paths and speeds throughout the life cycles of the storms, you may get a better feel for forecasting and make more accurate predictions.

Tips & Warnings

• Unread elements, such as wind shear that isn't visible, can affect the path and speed of the hurricane, even when the models predict otherwise.