How to Win the Oscar Pool

I've been going to an annual Academy Awards party for over ten years and I love not only the fabulous spread of food and liquor my friends put out... I love the prizes I often win. Many times I've finished in the top three in our Oscar Pool--and we vote on ALL of the awards, yes, even those obscure gems like Best Live Action Short. I've developed a few techniques...

Instructions

Difficulty: Moderately Challenging

Things You’ll Need:

• Access to movies

1. See as many of the nominated movies as you can. No, really. You want to win? See 'em. It's fun and you actually do get a feel for the winners. My pals and I saw the nominees for Best Documentary Short Subject last year and we EASILY picked the winner out of the bunch (it was the film about Norman Corwin).
2. Pay attention to the other awards leading up to the Oscar telecast. Tune in to the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Check on-line who wins the Directors, Writers and Producers Guild awards (DGA, WGA, PGA). You'll soon be discerning trends like a pro.
3. Factor in sentimentality. Word was that Elizabeth Taylor's tracheotomy got her the Best Actress award for "Butterfield 8." Think John Wayne in "True Grit." Someone has been nominated a half dozen times before and never won? This could be their year.
4. Sentimentality doesn't always trump good work. Two words: Martin Scorsese. People thought he was a shoo-in for "The Aviator." He lost to Clint Eastwood ("Million Dollar Baby"). Lauren Bacall lost to Juliette Binoche. (Heck, I voted for Lauren Bacall. And I loved Juliette in "The English Patient," but I let the gosh darn sentimental thing rule my ballot on that one.)
5. Don't be completely swayed by all of the advertising. The big studios spend a king's ransom every winter to promote their Oscar contenders. A) It won't spiff up a mediocre picture (that's why you need to see them yourself) and B) all those ads create resentment in voters of the Academy. They don't like thinking they can be bought--and neither should you.
6. Don't vote for your personal favorite--you're trying to second guess the Academy. My friend Diane, who originally invited me to this annual shindig, perennially votes for her favorites. And every year she has the least number of correct picks. The party givers finally named an award in her honor for the worst ballot of the evening. Don't let this happen to you.
7. The Academy skews a little older. Witness their safe epic Best Picture picks like "Gandhi" and "Out of Africa." Yawn.
8. If you do this long enough, your intuition will sift through all of the above factors and be your guide. One year I filled out my ballot literally five minutes before I left home to go to the party. I won first prize that year. Intuition.

Tips & Warnings

• Completely miscalculate your ballot? Eat another helping of lasagne and scream at the TV that Eddie Murphy was robbed, robbed, I tell you! Oh, wait, maybe they shouldn't have released "Norbit" during Oscar season...