What is the Probability of Winning an Academy Award?
The Academy Awards are Hollywood's highest honors. Calculating your probability of winning an Oscar can be simplified with an understanding of populations and statistics, and your chance of winning can be greatly improved by working in the film industry.
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Number of Awards
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The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Science marks the the 83rd year of awards in 2010. There are currently 24 awards (Oscars) given out each year. There also may be additional categories added in the future. Considering 18 categories have been added in 83 years, you can assume one category is added every five years. Find out how many more categories will be added in your expected lifetime.
Population
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Oscars are not restricted to American citizens; anyone in the world has an opportunity to work hard and earn one. With the world population expected to exceed 7 billion in 2011 and 10 billion around 2050, the competition for Oscars will be daunting.
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Calculations
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Divide the total number of awards given in an average lifetime by the number of people to get an individual's chances of winning an Oscar. Someone born today can expect to see 2,200 Oscars awarded among roughly 15 billion people, for odds of about one in 7 million.
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References
- Photo Credit role of film image by Slobodan Djajic from Fotolia.com
