What is Pocketbook Voting?

Pocketbook voting is a political concept that sees voters casting their election ballots based on how they perceive their personal economic circumstances.

Pocketbook voting is a political concept that sees voters casting their election ballots based on how they perceive their personal economic circumstances. Essentially, pocketbook voting is what researchers term a "selfish" factor. Rather than vote for the common good, people vote their "pocketbook" on the belief that the person for whom they are voting will help their personal economic situation.

Pocketbook Voting Theory

Theoretically, a voter will vote against the incumbent administration or individual he blames for the downturn in his fortunes.

Theoretically, when a voter feels his economic condition has deteriorated, he will vote against the incumbent administration or individual he blames for the downturn in his fortunes. Three Scandinavian researchers in an extensive study of pocketbook voting and American presidential elections found that impact on one's pocketbook is only one of many complex factors that influence both the economy and an individual's financial situation.

Pocketbook Voting Perspective

Evidence that pocketbook voting actually sways voting "is surprisingly weak."

In the wake of the quick and decisive success of Operation Desert Storm, the reelection of President George H. W. Bush was considered a foregone conclusion. However, not long before the 1992 election, Bush's economic policies, which included a $300 billion budget deficit driven by massive tax cuts coupled with 10 percent inflation, drove voters to elect Bill Clinton. However, the Scandinavian study concluded that while politicians target voters with pocketbook issues, evidence that it actually sways voting "is surprisingly weak." It has never been clearly demonstrated that Clinton defeated Bush based on pocketbook voters.

Economic Realities

National politicians have little effect on the economy.

Following the November 2006 mid-term elections, The New York Times pointed out in an analysis that national politicians have little effect on the economy. Consequently, voting your pocketbook is ineffective. In reality, America's ability for economic growth is dependent upon new technologies and educational accomplishment, and on the world scale, economic growth has little, if anything to do with our elected representatives. Candidates promise jobs, economic growth and financial security perennially; however, beyond delivering the occasional pork barrel project, representatives have little economic impact on their district or state.

Alternative Consideration

Personal finances and broader economic issues may go hand-in-hand to influence voting.

More recently, researchers from George Washington University proposed that while traditionally pocketbook voting behavior was pitted against "sociotropic" considerations--voting based on broader economic implications than simply one's own--the two positions go hand-in-hand. The researchers believe that perceptions of the national economy, good or bad, are a yard stick by which individuals measure their own economic situation. The questions the voter then asks are: Am I ahead, behind or keeping up?

Pocketbook Voting Implication

Economic considerations are part of voters boarder political prejudices.

Acknowledging that pocketbook voting is a concept that has been explored for many years in hundreds of studies, University of Vermont researchers took a different perspective. They believe that while pocketbook voting is a way to "reward or punish incumbents" based on personal economic success or failure, the fact that such a notion has not held up well to investigation is because voters are prejudiced by their preexisting political beliefs and perceptions. These prejudices carry far more weight than transitory economic considerations. In other words, a Republican is a Republican and a Democrat is a Democrat.

References

• Station Stops: "I'm Voting with My Pocketbook" -- Or Are you?
• Editorial Express: Selfish and Prospective: Theory and Evidence of Pocketbook Voting
• All Academic: Pocketbook Voting Revisited: Partisanship, Economic Interests and Congressional Elections, 1980-1992
• New York Times: Maybe You Did Vote Your Pocketbook
• The Monkey Cage: A Different Take on Sociotropic and Pocketbook Voting

Resources

• Center for the Study of Democracy: Pocketbook Voting