Definition of Imminent Threat

Imminent threat and the preemptive strike

Imminent threat is a term used in international law to justify a preemptive military strike. Often controversial, the concept has been invoked several times in wars of the 20th and 21st centuries.

History

The term was first used by Daniel Webster, then U.S. Secretary of State, in negotiations leading to the 1842 Webster-Ashburton Treaty with the British North American colonies. Beginning with the Caroline Affair of 1837 in which a U.S. vessel was sent over Niagara Falls, Webster agreed that imminent threat would have justified the attack, while denying that any such threat existed.

The United Nations Charter

In its initial 1945 Charter, the United Nations stated (Article 51): "Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations." While affirming the right of nations to exercise self-defense, the Charter only explicitly sanctioned this in reaction to an attack, and not in response to imminent threat alone.

Applications

Many nations nevertheless relied on the concept of imminent threat to justify military action, including the U.S. blockade of Cuba during the 1962 missile crisis, the Arab-Israeli Six-Day War of 1967 and Israel's 1981 attack on the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq.

Invasion of Iraq

The concept of imminent threat was employed in the justification of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. President George W. Bush argued that Saddam Hussein had stockpiled large amounts of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) such as poison gas, and that the presence of these required a military invasion.

Concerns

While imminent threat is widely accepted as a matter of customary law, it remains controversial as an aspect of international law. Some are concerned that the term may be invoked to provide a rationale for what would otherwise be simple military aggression.

References

• The Avalon Project: "The Caroline Affair"
• The Avalon Project: "Charter of the United Nations; June 26, 1945"
• Dialogue: "Pre-emptive self-defence, international law and US policy;" by Chris Richter, 2003
• Brookings: "The preemptive-war doctrine has met an early death in Iraq;" Daalder and Lindsay, 2004

Resources

• Center for Defense Information: "Preemptive War and International Law "; Steven Welsh, December 2003