What Is Public Policy Analysis Projection?

Policy projection observes trends to predict outcomes.

Public policy analysis investigates the causes, consequences and performance of public policies and programs. Analysts use techniques from the social sciences, especially economics and political science, to better inform policy decisions by officials in the legislative and executive branches of government. Often, policy analysts must predict the possible outcomes of proposed policies or the results of existing ones. To do this, they produce a type of analysis known as a forecast or policy projection.

Identification

In public policy analysis, projection involves making judgments about the outcomes of an existing or proposed policy, based on extrapolation from current and historical data. A good example would be the Congressional Budget Office's estimates of the U.S. government's budget deficits, which provide a baseline for members of Congress to use when debating and approving the federal budget. CBO researchers analyze past and current budget and economic data to project the size of deficits, and their economic forecasts are generally as accurate as those produced by the Blue Chip consensus of top private sector economic forecasting firms.

Types

Policy analysis projection is not limited to the economy and government budget information, however. Analysts in government, academia, interest groups and private research organizations conduct projections to estimate the possible outcomes of policy alternatives affecting education, health care, transportation, energy, the environment, national security and other areas.

Function

Policy analysis projections provide government policy makers in the legislative and executive branches of government with forecasts that can inform and guide their decision making. Like all forms of policy analysis, projections attempt to provide information about possible consequences of new policies or changes to existing ones. For example, projections that the federal budget deficit will increase dramatically over the next five years may trigger members of Congress to propose large cuts in government spending and/or increases in taxes to reduce the fiscal imbalance. Projected increases in U.S. oil imports may lead elected officials to push policies for expanded domestic oil exploration or greater use of alternative energy sources.

Features

Methods of public policy projection vary with the type of policy or problem being analyzed. Some projections use economic forecasting methods, such as time-series analysis, while others rely on simpler extrapolative methods, such as comparing past policies to identify strengths and weaknesses, which can help policy makers avoid past mistakes or other pitfalls. Some analysts bolster their projections with opinions from recognized experts or insights from economic and political theories.

Benefits

Whether by analyzing current and historical data to predict future consequences or comparing past policies and their outcomes, projections provide policy makers with information that helps them take proactive action to address important public issues. However, it is important to remember that policy making occurs in a politically charged environment, and that officials concerned with re-election may respond more to various political pressures than to policy analysis results.

Considerations

Although policy analysts rely on a wide range of tools and methods to produce projections, including sophisticated statistical models, a wide variety of unforeseen social, economic, cultural and political changes can affect the reliability of projections and other policy forecasts. The dynamic nature of the global economy contributes to the difficulty of projection. Unexpected events such as the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S., the rapid growth of the Internet and the global economic crisis of 2008 illustrate the difficulties involved in projecting the directions and consequences of public policies. Unforeseen changes and unexpected events can render even the most rigorous projection unreliable as a guide in shaping government policy.

References

• Public Policy Analysis: An Introduction (2nd ed.), William N. Dunn, 1994
• The World of the Policy Analyst: Rationality, Values and Politics; Robert A. Heineman, William T. Bluhm, Steven A. Peterson and Edward N. Kearny, 1990
• Congressional Budget Office: FAQs

Resources

• Six Steps for a Successful Policy Analysis